Monthly Archives: October 2014

Turkey’s Push for a No Fly Zone

From the Washington Post:
“France and Turkey, in turn, have pushed to establish a no-fly and buffer zone to protect refugees in northern Syria, an idea opposed by the United States, Germany and others. No country in the coalition is eager to send ground troops to Iraq or Syria, despite a shortage of reliable proxy forces in either country to fight the Islamic State head-to-head.”

Why would Turkey want a no-fly zone?  ISIS has no planes.  Turkey and France have been pushing for the no fly zone since 2011.  Turkey thought this would limit Syria’s military options, allowing the Turkish-allied Muslim Brotherhood in Syria to take over the government, which would in turn limit the Kurdish drive for sovereignty.  It hasn’t turned out that way, but Turkey hasn’t shifted its strategy.

Is Saudi Arabia ISIS’ True Goal?

From Pat Lang at Sic Semper Tyrannis:

“The US will wreck itself if it continues to fight these ruinously expensive wars against the jihadis. IMO the IS wants to build a salafist state across the Middl East and South Asia. To that end they must achieve control of the assets now possessed by Saudi Arabia.

Would IS welcome a chance to inflict as many casualties on the US as possible? Certainly they would but that would be a means to an end and not the end itself.”

Turkey, the Valued NATO Ally

From Patrick Cockburn:

“Ever since Syrian government forces withdrew from the Syrian Kurdish enclaves or cantons on the border with Turkey in July 2012, Ankara has feared the impact of self-governing Syrian Kurds on its own 15 million-strong Kurdish population.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would prefer Isis to control Kobani, not the PYD. When five PYD members, who had been fighting Isis at Kobani, were picked up by the Turkish army as they crossed the border last week they were denounced as “separatist terrorists”.

Turkey is demanding a high price from the US for its co-operation in attacking Isis, such as a Turkish-controlled buffer zone inside Syria where Syrian refugees are to live and anti-Assad rebels are to be trained. Mr Erdogan would like a no-fly zone which will also be directed against the government in Damascus since Isis has no air force. If implemented the plan would mean Turkey, backed by the US, would enter the Syrian civil war on the side of the rebels, though the anti-Assad forces are dominated by Isis and Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda affiliate.”

“Why doesn’t Ankara worry more about the collapse of the peace process with the PKK that has maintained a ceasefire since 2013? It may believe that the PKK is too heavily involved in fighting Isis in Syria that it cannot go back to war with the government in Turkey. On the other hand, if Turkey does join the civil war in Syria against Assad, a crucial ally of Iran, then Iranian leaders have said that “Turkey will pay a price”. This probably means that Iran will covertly support an armed Kurdish insurgency in Turkey. Saddam Hussein made a somewhat similar mistake to Mr Erdogan when he invaded Iran in 1980, thus leading Iran to reignite the Kurdish rebellion that Baghdad had crushed through an agreement with the Shah in 1975. Turkish military intervention in Syria might not end the war there, but it may well spread the fighting to Turkey.”

North Korea and China Quarreling

Kim Jong-un hasn’t been seen in a while.  His sister seems to be in control in his absence.  Entrance and exit permits are reportedly revoked in Pyongyang.  North Korea and China are not happy with each other, so top North Korean government officials are visiting South Korea to talk about re-unification again.  They do this as a threat to China, which needs a pliant North Korea on its border, not a western-leaning unified state.  Of course, the U.S. also doesn’t want re-unification.  It needs the relationship between the south and the north to be always on the edge in order to keep its control over the south.  Tension between China and North Korea cause sympathy for the north in South Korea.

Lots of good background on the “hermit kingdom” from Justin Raimondo here:

 

The Aims of British Appeasement of Germany After World War 1

From Carroll Quigley’s history of the 20th century, Tragedy and Hope:

British motivations for appeasement are divided into four groups, listed from most to least influential:

1.  Anti-Soviet (and anti-French/pro-German)

2.  Atlantic bloc supporters

3.  Appeasers

4.  Those wanting “peace at any price”

The first group was led by Lord Curzon after World War 1 and worked to end Germany’s reparations payments and to allow German re-armament.  They also worked against French militarism as the strongest obstacle to Germany in Western Europe.

The second group was led by the Round Table Group, which controlled the Rhodes Trust, the Beit Trust, several British newspapers and policy journals, and Chatham House, among others.  They differed from the first group in that they sought to contain the Soviet Union between a Europe dominated by Germany in the west, Japan in the east, and an Atlantic bloc consisting of the British Commonwealth and the United States.  The first group simply wished to destroy the Soviets.

The anti-Soviet group was determined to tear France down as a potential rival to Germany, and sought secret cooperation, led by Lord d’Abernon, between Britain and German military leaders against the Soviets.  As British ambassador to Germany from 1920 to 1926, D’Abernon blocked inspections of German re-armament.

These two groups worked together in the mid-1920s to craft the Dawes Plan, which called for an end to the Allied occupation of the Ruhr Valley and an easier system of reparations, and the Locarno pacts, which sought to normalize relations with Germany.  The moderate wing of the Round Table Group, led by Lords Lothian, Brand, and Astor, aimed to weaken the League of Nations as a collective security organization, which would allow Germany more freedom of movement in its re-armament and increased ability to stand against both the Soviets and the French.  With Europe turned over to German control, the British would be able to focus on the creation of the Atlantic bloc.

The Atlantic-German-Soviet three bloc world idea was predicated on the belief that Germany would be forced to keep the peace, after taking over much of Europe, as it would be between the Alantic bloc and the Soviets, who would in turn be checked by Japan on one side and Germany on the other.  In this way it was hoped that the balance of international power could be maintained to the satisfaction of all parties.

The anti-Soviet group and the Round Table Group cooperated on this goal and dominated the British government from 1937-1939.  The two groups split, however, in late 1939/early 1940 when Lords Halifax and Lothian turned against Germany, which they came to view as insatiable.  Neville Chamberlain and others remained committed to using Germany for their anti-Soviet plans.

Wielding far less power than the first two groups were the appeasers and the peace at any price group.  The appeasers focused on Germany’s poor treatment by the Allies in the Treaty of Versailles, and believed that if Germany were allowed to regain military parity, re-militarization of the Rhineland, and union with Austria, then European stability and peace could be maintained.  When Germany remained unsatisfied after achieving these aims, the appeasers realized that Germany could only be controlled by allowing it to move east, at the expense of Czechoslovakia and Poland, thereby coming into contact with the Soviet Union.  Many appeasers moved to the anti-Soviet group at this point.

The peace at any price group was easily manipulated by government propaganda exaggerating German military strength and playing down British strength.  A sense of panic was instilled by hyping the threat of a German air attack and by fitting all citizens for gas masks.  The panic this created pushed the British population to accept the German destruction of Czechoslovakia in 1938, in exchange for which Chamberlain received from Hitler a letter allowing Chamberlain to proclaim the achievement of peace “in our time.”

When this peace proved short-lived, British public opinion turned against Germany in 1939-1940, but Chamberlain could not publicly espouse the anti-Soviet or three bloc rationale for appeasing Germany.  Instead, he acted as if Britain was resisting, but still worked to bring Germany up to the Soviet border behind the scenes.

ISIS’ Brand of Islam

These two articles describe how the Wahhabi sect of Sunni Islam, brought to power in 1744 through a pact between Muhammed ibn Saud and Muhammed ibn Abd al-Wahhab during the conquest of the Arabian peninsula, provides the philosophical basis for ISIS’ interpretation of Islam.  This form of Islam

1.  gave moral cover to the al-Sauds as they dealt harshly with the other Arabian tribes during their conquest.

2.  allows almost any action by ISIS for the attainment of political means by providing an Islamic cover.

3.  has made the al-Saud family somewhat captive to their own radicalized population.

4.  forced the al-Saud family to focus Wahhabi energies outside the kingdom by financing radical Islamic schools all over the Muslim world and by supporting jihadist movements.

This small movement, though its views are anathema and foreign to a majority of Muslims, has had an outsized influence on the Muslim world through its partnership with the now oil-rich al-Saud family.

Playing with Fanatic Fire

ISIS’ Harsh Brand of Islam is Rooted in Austere Saudi Creed