Category Archives: Geopolitics

North Korea and China Quarreling

Kim Jong-un hasn’t been seen in a while.  His sister seems to be in control in his absence.  Entrance and exit permits are reportedly revoked in Pyongyang.  North Korea and China are not happy with each other, so top North Korean government officials are visiting South Korea to talk about re-unification again.  They do this as a threat to China, which needs a pliant North Korea on its border, not a western-leaning unified state.  Of course, the U.S. also doesn’t want re-unification.  It needs the relationship between the south and the north to be always on the edge in order to keep its control over the south.  Tension between China and North Korea cause sympathy for the north in South Korea.

Lots of good background on the “hermit kingdom” from Justin Raimondo here:

 

The Aims of British Appeasement of Germany After World War 1

From Carroll Quigley’s history of the 20th century, Tragedy and Hope:

British motivations for appeasement are divided into four groups, listed from most to least influential:

1.  Anti-Soviet (and anti-French/pro-German)

2.  Atlantic bloc supporters

3.  Appeasers

4.  Those wanting “peace at any price”

The first group was led by Lord Curzon after World War 1 and worked to end Germany’s reparations payments and to allow German re-armament.  They also worked against French militarism as the strongest obstacle to Germany in Western Europe.

The second group was led by the Round Table Group, which controlled the Rhodes Trust, the Beit Trust, several British newspapers and policy journals, and Chatham House, among others.  They differed from the first group in that they sought to contain the Soviet Union between a Europe dominated by Germany in the west, Japan in the east, and an Atlantic bloc consisting of the British Commonwealth and the United States.  The first group simply wished to destroy the Soviets.

The anti-Soviet group was determined to tear France down as a potential rival to Germany, and sought secret cooperation, led by Lord d’Abernon, between Britain and German military leaders against the Soviets.  As British ambassador to Germany from 1920 to 1926, D’Abernon blocked inspections of German re-armament.

These two groups worked together in the mid-1920s to craft the Dawes Plan, which called for an end to the Allied occupation of the Ruhr Valley and an easier system of reparations, and the Locarno pacts, which sought to normalize relations with Germany.  The moderate wing of the Round Table Group, led by Lords Lothian, Brand, and Astor, aimed to weaken the League of Nations as a collective security organization, which would allow Germany more freedom of movement in its re-armament and increased ability to stand against both the Soviets and the French.  With Europe turned over to German control, the British would be able to focus on the creation of the Atlantic bloc.

The Atlantic-German-Soviet three bloc world idea was predicated on the belief that Germany would be forced to keep the peace, after taking over much of Europe, as it would be between the Alantic bloc and the Soviets, who would in turn be checked by Japan on one side and Germany on the other.  In this way it was hoped that the balance of international power could be maintained to the satisfaction of all parties.

The anti-Soviet group and the Round Table Group cooperated on this goal and dominated the British government from 1937-1939.  The two groups split, however, in late 1939/early 1940 when Lords Halifax and Lothian turned against Germany, which they came to view as insatiable.  Neville Chamberlain and others remained committed to using Germany for their anti-Soviet plans.

Wielding far less power than the first two groups were the appeasers and the peace at any price group.  The appeasers focused on Germany’s poor treatment by the Allies in the Treaty of Versailles, and believed that if Germany were allowed to regain military parity, re-militarization of the Rhineland, and union with Austria, then European stability and peace could be maintained.  When Germany remained unsatisfied after achieving these aims, the appeasers realized that Germany could only be controlled by allowing it to move east, at the expense of Czechoslovakia and Poland, thereby coming into contact with the Soviet Union.  Many appeasers moved to the anti-Soviet group at this point.

The peace at any price group was easily manipulated by government propaganda exaggerating German military strength and playing down British strength.  A sense of panic was instilled by hyping the threat of a German air attack and by fitting all citizens for gas masks.  The panic this created pushed the British population to accept the German destruction of Czechoslovakia in 1938, in exchange for which Chamberlain received from Hitler a letter allowing Chamberlain to proclaim the achievement of peace “in our time.”

When this peace proved short-lived, British public opinion turned against Germany in 1939-1940, but Chamberlain could not publicly espouse the anti-Soviet or three bloc rationale for appeasing Germany.  Instead, he acted as if Britain was resisting, but still worked to bring Germany up to the Soviet border behind the scenes.

ISIS’ Brand of Islam

These two articles describe how the Wahhabi sect of Sunni Islam, brought to power in 1744 through a pact between Muhammed ibn Saud and Muhammed ibn Abd al-Wahhab during the conquest of the Arabian peninsula, provides the philosophical basis for ISIS’ interpretation of Islam.  This form of Islam

1.  gave moral cover to the al-Sauds as they dealt harshly with the other Arabian tribes during their conquest.

2.  allows almost any action by ISIS for the attainment of political means by providing an Islamic cover.

3.  has made the al-Saud family somewhat captive to their own radicalized population.

4.  forced the al-Saud family to focus Wahhabi energies outside the kingdom by financing radical Islamic schools all over the Muslim world and by supporting jihadist movements.

This small movement, though its views are anathema and foreign to a majority of Muslims, has had an outsized influence on the Muslim world through its partnership with the now oil-rich al-Saud family.

Playing with Fanatic Fire

ISIS’ Harsh Brand of Islam is Rooted in Austere Saudi Creed

Why did ISIS and al Qaeda split?

Who’s going to give baya to whom?

ISIS favors cleansing the Sunni population through violence, as well as fighting non-Sunnis, while al-Qaeda prefers to treat local populations less harshly, slowly ramping up their strict interpretation of sharia after consolidating gains.

In depth explanation of the split between the seemingly consanguine groups, from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy:

 The War Between ISIS and al-Qaeda for Supremacy of the Global Jihadist Movement

 

Apparent Inconsistencies in US Foreign Policy

The unanswered question:  why is Iran so important to US foreign policy?

http://original.antiwar.com/Ted_Snider/2014/06/25/taking-out-our-friends-so-we-can-install-our-enemies-what/

“In an astonishing shift of geopolitical realities, America finds itself, literally, at war with itself. Though Syria and Iraq are consistently presented as two separate stories – the one in Syria as a hopeful rebellion; the one in Iraq as a terrorist uprising – the protagonist of the first story is the same character as the one cast as the antagonist in the second.”

Leaving Rigged Systems

With the U.S. government using its influence in the international financial system and the worldwide use of the dollar as weapons, this kind of shift away from this system is likely to increase.  The dollar’s value is supported by, among other things, its use in international energy and illegal drug deals.  Pepe Escobar writes:

“… talking about anxiety in Washington, there’s the fate of the petrodollar to consider, or rather the “thermonuclear” possibility that Moscow and Beijing will agree on payment for the Gazprom-CNPC deal not in petrodollars but in Chinese yuan. One can hardly imagine a more tectonic shift, with Pipelineistan intersecting with a growing Sino-Russian political-economic-energy partnership. Along with it goes the future possibility of a push, led again by China and Russia, toward a new international reserve currency – actually a basket of currencies – that would supersede the dollar (at least in the optimistic dreams of BRICS members).”

Streetwise Professor is not impressed:

Putin travels to China this week, and the big item on the agenda is the supposed signing of a long-awaited gas deal.

“I’ve seen this show many times before, going back to 2004. Much fanfare ahead of the meeting! A deal is signed! But the price is TBD. Meaning there is no real deal. And then the charade occurs again a couple of years later.”

Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy

link to article

From Chuck Spinney:

“An economically weakened, war weary United States is now careening toward a New Cold War with Russia.  But this time, the march of folly is not accompanied by pretentious calls to bipartisanism or even patriotism.  On the contrary, it is clear to the entire world, if not the American people, that the stampede is being driven by the vitriolic excesses of America’s deeply dysfunctional domestic politics.”

From Robert Parry:

“The American mainstream news media has rarely bought in so thoroughly to a U.S.
government propaganda campaign as it has in taking sides in support of the post-coup
government in Ukraine and against Russia and pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.
Part of this is explained by the longstanding animus toward Russian President Vladimir Putin for
his autocratic style, his shirtless photographs and his government’s opposition to gay rights.
Another part is a hangover from the Cold War when the Russkies were the enemy. In Official
Washington, there is palpable nostalgia for the days of Ronald Reagan’s anticommunist swagger
and “Red Dawn” fantasies.
But another reason for the biased coverage from the U.S. press corps is the recent fusion of the
still-influential neoconservatives with more liberal “responsibility to protect” (R2P) activists who
believe in “humanitarian” military interventions. The modern mainstream U.S. news media is
dominated by these two groups: neocons on the right and R2Pers on the center-left.”

 

 

 

The Great Game

“The Great Game” was the name used by the English for their geostrategic struggle with Russia in Central Asia. The struggle continues today, with new and old players. An understanding of the area, the players and their goals, and the history of the conflict is required for an understanding of current events. An entertaining and educational place to start is with Peter Hopkirk’s book The Great Game.

Paul Kennedy’s “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers”

Chapter 4 of the book talks about Western industrialization and what it meant for the rest of the world in the 18th and 19th centuries, especially after Napoleon’s defeat in 1815, which is worth study because the opposite process seems to be going on today. Several characteristics of this time are described.

First, a transoceanic and transcontinental trading system developed, rapidly after 1840, with western Europe and especially Great Britain as its trading and finance center.  The process was helped along by advances in transportation and communications and by the removal of the tariff-based mercantilist system, and allowed for Europe to pass from its Great Power politics and war period to a time of economic harmonization and cooperation.

The European powers and the United States did not stop aggressive military action, but instead focused it on the conquest of the less developed but resource rich world. The technological superiority of the west over the rest of the world was also clear in military technology, making resistance difficult.

Before the Industrial Revolution, Indian or Chinese laborers were not too far behind Europeans in productivity, but after European industrialization the absolute level of Chinese and Indian production decreased as cheaper and better European products entered their markets.  The developing world sometimes de-industrialized. Regulations, high wages, and Wall Street, helped by inflation, are reversing this process.